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e - ISSN 2289 - 2559

Journal of Emerging Economies and Islamic Research

 
 

Volume 5, Number 2, Year 2017
 

REGULAR ARTICLE

ABSTRACT

The adoption of a flexible exchange rate system since 1986 in Nigeria has made the country witnessed varying rate of the naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar. This paper examines exchange rate volatility with ARCH model and its various extensions (GARCH, TGARCH, and EGARCH) using quarterly exchange rate series from 1986-Q1 to 2014-Q4.The impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil exports was also examined using Error Correction Model (ECM) with two different measures of volatility. The results obtained confirm the existence of exchange rate volatility and also found a significant negative effect on non-oil export performance in Nigeria. Therefore, the Nigerian government should ensure an appropriate policy mix that not only ensures a stable and realistic exchange rate but also conducive atmosphere for production and exportation.

 

KEYWORDS

Non-oil export, Exchange rate volatility, Trade, ARCH-type models

 

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